news 1 month ago

One Emerging Factor May Help Trump's Chances

Newser — Newser Editors

The polls continue to show Joe Biden with a steady lead nationally and in most battleground states, and the AP notes that President Trump himself has been publicly speculating about losing in November.

Biden's campaign, meanwhile, is busy warning Democrats about over-confidence. The race is a "lot closer" than people think, campaign chief Jen O'Malley Dillon wrote last week.

A look at why that might be:

  • Registering voters: The No. 1 source of concern for Democrats is that Republican registration is up in crucial states, reports Politico.

Yes, Democrats appear to have a clear edge in record-setting early voting, but will that be enough to overcome an expected large turnout of Trump voters on Election Day?

  • 3 key states: GOP registration gains in Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina, paired with hopes of the heavy turnout mentioned above, are boosting Republican spirits, reports the New York Times.

"The tremendous voter registration gain by the Republicans is the secret weapon that will make the difference for the Republicans in 2020," Dee Stewart, a GOP political consultant in North Carolina, tells the newspaper.

  • Pollsters' blind spot? An analysis by JPMorgan Chase finds that the GOP has picked up 200,000 voters in Pennsylvania since 2016, when Trump won there by less than 50,000 votes, per Fox News.

The analysis finds similar progress in Florida, North Carolina, and New Mexico. All of which has Guy Benson wondering at Town Hall, "Are Pollsters Missing a Key Factor That Could Benefit Trump?"

  • Other factors: Uncertainty of polling in swing states, the disqualification of mail-in ballots, and young voters failing to return their mail-in ballots also make Politico's list of "hidden" reasons why Democrats are nervous. "I predict in the coming weeks the Democratic narrative will change from euphoria over the apparent large leads in early voting to concern that a disproportionately large number of younger voters have yet to return their mail ballots," writes Michael McDonald in an analysis at the US Elections Project.
  • Not done? If Trump does indeed lose, that's the end of his presidential aspirations, right? Maybe not.

Steve Bannon tells the Australian that he thinks Trump would run again. "I'll make this prediction right now: If for any reason the election is stolen from, or in some sort of way Joe Biden is declared the winner, Trump will announce he's going to run for re-election in 2024," he said.

"You're not going to see the end of Donald Trump."

More From Newser

This article originally appeared on Newser: One Emerging Factor May Help Trump's Chances